Making evidence-informed decisions

We all strive to make the best decisions we can, in our lives and in our professional roles. A key objective of improved governance is to optimise the decisions we make for our organisations.

Good decision making does not come from a vacuum. Instead, it is shaped by relevant information that helps guide sound judgment. So, what does it mean to make evidence-informed decisions? And can we break it down into its key ingredients?

Being evidence-informed requires us to draw on three elements: research, experience, and context. While these are all important and necessary, on their own they are unfortunately insufficient.

 

Research

Research is necessary…

While our individual perceptions are valuable, they are often quite narrow in scope and do not provide a sufficiently comprehensive understanding of the world. For instance, one study demonstrated how participants tended to assume that their peers would act as they would, hence revealing our inclination to project personal beliefs onto others.

Research also suggests that people often cling on to their initial beliefs and consistently ignore alternative explanations. These tendencies illustrate just how much weight people place on subjective experience. In order to overcome these subjective biases, there is a need to engage in external and objective research that can expose us to diverse perspectives, thereby expanding our knowledge and broadening our thinking. 

…but not sufficient

Research must be complemented by experience and context. One study showed that, while research helped inform decisions, it never totally replaced individual judgement. This is best exemplified in an education context with ‘research sensitive’ schools, where teachers who blend evidence with professional expertise end up becoming more reflective in their practice. Ultimately, only by critically consuming research, acknowledging biases, and adapting findings to unique settings, can educators and learners make more informed, effective decisions.

 

Experience

Experience is necessary…

Research offers valuable knowledge to enhance decision making, but its true potential is realised when it is combined with expertise. Here, prior experience and knowledge is essential for new learning, as demonstrated in a study where children struggled to use new words properly because they lacked sufficient background knowledge. Similarly, the use of research may be ineffective if not applied with the right experiential knowledge.

This idea is echoed in a study of teachers watching a video of a classroom with disruptive students. Compared to less experienced teachers, experienced teachers were better able to focus on important classroom cues and described their thoughts in more detail. This emphasises the necessity of experience and how it underlies more effective teaching behaviours.

…but not sufficient

Experience can enhance decision making but is still susceptible to biases that distort judgement. In one experiment, participants watching a car crash video were asked different questions using varying verbs like "smashed" versus "hit." Those hearing "smashed" were more likely to falsely remember seeing broken glass, highlighting how subtle wording changes can alter memory.

Similarly, a survey of 2,000 adults revealed that people often favoured the decades of their youth, showing the influence of nostalgia on judgement behaviours. These biases, alongside faulty memory, make relying solely on past experiences for decisions unreliable and prone to error.

Researchers have identified several cognitive biases that make relying on experience unreliable. Here is a quick summary of some of them:

 

Context

Context is necessary…

Decisions are most effective when tailored to the specific context. Blindly applying research without considering context can lead to overgeneralisation. For example, a satirical study found that parachutes made no difference when participants jumped just 60 cm from a stationary aircraft but humorously noted the results wouldn’t apply to high-altitude jumps. This example underscores the need to consider both the research context and your own before applying findings to real-world situations.

Similarly, expertise is context-dependent. A seminal paper found that while chess masters excelled at recalling standard board positions, they performed no better than novices when pieces were randomly arranged. This shows that good judgment in familiar territory may not transfer to unfamiliar contexts.

Clearly, there is a tendency to prescribe one-size-fits-all solutions when applying research and experience in different contexts. Lt. Gilbert S. Daniels’ work highlights this flaw perfectly. While redesigning cockpits, he averaged 140 measurements from over 4,600 pilots but found that no one matched any of the averages. This shows the importance of tailoring decisions to specific contexts, even when guided by sound research and expertise.

…but not sufficient

Recognising that different situations require different approaches is an important first step. However, it must be combined with using research and experience wisely. Without these, you’re left facing problems without the right tools to solve them. As mentioned earlier, research and experience are key to finding solutions that fit each unique context.

 

Final thoughts

On their own, the individual elements of research, experience, and context each have their own advantages and drawbacks. To make the most of them, they must be used together in the decision-making process, allowing us to leverage their benefits while compensating for their limitations, ultimately leading to more evidence-informed decisions.

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Bradley Busch is a leading expert in understanding and illuminating Cognitive Science in education, and is Director of InnerDrive. He is a Chartered Psychologist with the British Psychological Society and Practitioner Psychologist with the Health Care Professionals Council.

His book, Evidence Informed Wisdom, co-authored with Edward Watson and Matthew Shaw, will be published later this year and is available to pre-order.

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